债务危机检测数据库

基于Ray Dalio债务危机理论框架,跟踪关键债务、利率、货币指标

数据来源
Wesley投资
覆盖时间
1992 - 2025
监测指标
6大类
数据频率
日/月/季/年

短长利率走势

Shibor 3M短期利率与Shibor 1Y长期利率的月度走势(月末值),以及短-长利差与短/长比率。数据始于2006年10月,覆盖约4,780个交易日的月度汇总。利率曲线反映市场流动性预期与货币政策取向。
数据范围:2006-10 至 2025-12,共231个月度数据点。
年份沪深300(年末)Shibor 3M(年末)Shibor 1Y(年末)短-长利差(年末)短/长比率(年末)Shibor 3M(年均)Shibor 1Y(年均)
2006年2041.052.80823.0021-0.19390.93542.75382.9857
2007年5338.274.43484.5825-0.14770.96783.39833.6568
2008年1817.721.77822.3597-0.58150.75364.04444.3608
2009年3575.681.83192.2502-0.41830.81411.51972.0489
2010年3128.264.62343.63120.99221.27322.5632.6692
2011年2345.745.46915.23730.23181.04435.3664.9764
2012年2522.953.89964.4002-0.50060.88624.25964.743
2013年2330.035.55654.96060.59591.12014.4864.448
2014年3533.75.13514.73040.40471.08564.95694.9475
2015年3731.03.08523.35-0.26480.9213.61343.836
2016年3310.083.27263.3728-0.10020.97032.9353.1075
2017年4030.854.91334.75810.15521.03264.41364.3329
2018年3010.653.3463.518-0.1720.95113.72724.0473
2019年4096.583.023.1005-0.08050.9742.83333.1105
2020年5211.292.7563.0-0.2440.91872.41422.6707
2021年4940.372.52.736-0.2360.91372.53172.8702
2022年3871.632.4222.619-0.1970.92482.07442.3569
2023年3431.112.532.581-0.0510.98022.32872.5147
2024年3934.911.68551.708-0.02250.98681.96532.0556
2025年4629.941.581.65-0.070.95761.66831.7224

负债和偿债(年度数据)

中国实体经济总负债及偿债压力年度跟踪。负债总额占GDP比率超过250%时系统性风险显著上升。
年份中国负债总额(万亿)负债总额占GDP偿债总额占GDPGDP名义增速债务增速增速差
1993年3.64481.0260.31240.27270.0397
1994年4.55040.9390.36410.24850.1157
1995年5.7340.9380.26150.26010.0013
1996年6.9640.9730.17080.2145-0.0437
1997年8.45121.0640.10980.2136-0.1038
1998年10.09271.1890.06870.1942-0.1255
1999年11.13821.2350.06250.1036-0.0411
2000年11.98311.2010.10630.07590.0305
2001年13.60731.2340.10520.1355-0.0304
2002年16.50471.3640.09730.2129-0.1156
2003年20.26621.4840.12860.2279-0.0993
2004年24.10711.50.17680.1895-0.0127
2005年26.78761.4410.15670.11120.0455
2006年31.16851.4320.17090.16350.0073
2007年38.8361.4490.23140.246-0.0146
2008年44.72541.4120.18180.15160.0302
2009年59.75931.7290.09120.3361-0.245
2010年73.88881.8070.18310.2364-0.0534
2011年85.9321.7750.1840.1630.021
2012年101.6971.9040.10330.1835-0.0802
2013年120.66152.0520.10090.1865-0.0856
2014年138.16942.1720.08180.1451-0.0633
2015年156.82822.2760.08320.135-0.0519
2016年178.08982.3860.08320.1356-0.0524
2017年200.68682.4120.11470.1269-0.0121
2018年219.61622.3890.10490.09430.0105
2019年243.27462.4660.07310.1077-0.0346
2020年274.57532.7090.02740.1287-0.1012
2021年302.01952.6280.13390.10.0339
2022年330.45582.7430.04830.0942-0.0459
2023年362.79552.8780.04640.0979-0.0515
2024年392.04382.9060.07020.0806-0.0104

中国宏观杠杆率研究

按部门拆分的季度杠杆率数据。居民+非金融企业+中央+地方政府=实体经济总杠杆率。
居民杠杆率非金融企业杠杆率中央政府杠杆率地方政府杠杆率总杠杆率GDP名义增速债务增速
1993-03-010.68030.0750.9110.0420.0391.067
1993-06-011.52190.0740.9110.0440.0381.067
1993-09-012.45240.0730.9020.0460.0371.058
1993-12-013.55240.070.8780.0420.0361.0260.27270.0397
1994-03-010.93380.0580.8780.0450.0351.0160.3070.0656
1994-06-012.09050.0460.8670.060.0341.0070.29640.0772
1994-09-013.3670.0360.8510.0540.0330.9740.26390.109
1994-12-014.8460.0270.8310.050.0310.9390.24850.1157
1995-03-011.20660.0270.8360.0510.0310.9450.20180.0903
1995-06-012.67940.0280.8340.0450.0310.9380.19390.0878
1995-09-014.28290.0280.8310.060.030.9490.23940.0326
1995-12-016.1130.0280.8230.0570.030.9380.26010.0013
1996-03-011.45730.0290.8350.0610.030.9550.2206-0.0128
1996-06-013.18590.030.8410.060.030.9610.2182-0.0292
1996-09-015.03170.030.8460.0650.0310.9720.2033-0.0285
1996-12-017.15720.0310.8460.0650.0310.9730.2145-0.0437
1997-03-011.66230.0350.8630.0610.0310.990.1825-0.0418
1997-06-013.59210.0390.8820.0520.0321.0050.1791-0.0516
1997-09-015.6260.0430.8980.0590.0321.0320.1871-0.069
1997-12-017.94290.0460.9140.0710.0331.0640.2136-0.1038
1998-03-011.79770.0490.9320.0510.0341.0660.1645-0.083
1998-06-013.84050.0520.9470.0560.0351.090.1596-0.0904
1998-09-016.00120.0550.9620.0940.0361.1470.1856-0.1189
1998-12-018.48840.0580.9720.1220.0371.1890.1942-0.1255
1999-03-011.92750.0580.9820.1130.0381.1910.1979-0.1257
1999-06-014.09590.0590.9850.1190.041.2030.1771-0.1106
1999-09-016.73230.0590.9860.130.0411.2160.1893-0.0675
1999-12-019.01880.0590.9880.1460.0421.2350.1036-0.0411
2000-03-012.12150.070.9690.1320.0431.2140.1219-0.0213
2000-06-014.53440.080.9430.1390.0441.2060.1098-0.0028
2000-09-017.08360.0890.9180.1420.0451.1940.03310.019
2000-12-019.97760.0980.8950.1620.0461.2010.07590.0305
2001-03-012.3950.1040.8920.150.0481.1940.11030.0186
2001-06-015.07460.1110.8920.1530.051.2060.11910
2001-09-017.88320.1170.8860.1620.0521.2170.1343-0.0214
2001-12-0111.0270.1230.8840.1720.0551.2340.1355-0.0304
2002-03-012.61330.1310.9110.1620.0581.2620.1533-0.0621
2002-06-015.53790.1390.9390.1780.0611.3170.1917-0.1004
2002-09-018.6350.1470.9540.1820.0641.3470.2124-0.117
2002-12-0112.10020.1530.9610.1830.0671.3640.2129-0.1156
2003-03-012.96310.1630.9840.1740.0691.390.2489-0.115
2003-06-016.21940.1721.0020.1790.0721.4250.2152-0.0921
2003-09-019.71620.181.0150.1820.0741.4510.2121-0.0869
2003-12-0113.65650.1861.0210.2010.0761.4840.2279-0.0993
2004-03-013.42910.1851.0440.1920.0781.4990.248-0.0907
2004-06-017.30040.1811.0460.1990.081.5060.2405-0.0667
2004-09-0111.4440.1781.050.2020.0811.5110.2265-0.0487
2004-12-0116.07140.1741.050.1930.0831.50.1895-0.0127
2005-03-014.01310.1781.0620.1830.0851.5080.1773-0.007
2005-06-018.48790.1781.0260.1830.0871.4740.1380.0247
2005-09-0113.24290.1751.0150.1810.091.4610.11890.0383
2005-12-0118.58960.1690.9970.1830.0921.4410.11120.0455
2006-03-014.66780.1751.0190.1740.0941.4620.12770.0355
2006-06-019.92380.1781.0220.1680.0961.4640.16120.0079
2006-09-0115.47060.1781.0110.1660.0991.4540.16260.0056
2006-12-0121.76570.1750.990.1670.11.4320.16350.0073
2007-03-015.66870.1841.0080.1560.1021.450.20450.01
2007-06-0112.13360.1891.0120.1550.1031.4590.21850.0042
2007-09-0119.01260.1940.9950.1740.1041.4670.2399-0.011
2007-12-0126.80190.1880.960.1960.1051.4490.246-0.0146
2008-03-016.87780.1880.9790.1890.1051.4610.2225-0.0092
2008-06-0114.73160.1860.9750.180.1061.4470.20410.01
2008-09-0122.89350.1840.9650.1740.1071.430.17380.0304
2008-12-0131.67520.1790.9520.1720.1091.4120.15160.0302
2009-03-017.32840.191.0770.170.121.5570.1355-0.07
2009-06-0115.68980.2061.1550.1730.1371.6710.2299-0.1649
2009-09-0124.58210.2251.1670.1790.1511.7220.293-0.2193
2009-12-0134.56290.2351.1550.1770.1621.7290.3361-0.245
2010-03-018.66840.2571.1760.1690.1621.7640.3401-0.1573
2010-06-0118.57440.2681.1890.170.1621.7890.2675-0.0836
2010-09-0129.06950.2731.20.1690.1641.8060.2402-0.0577
2010-12-0140.89030.2731.2050.1660.1631.8070.2364-0.0534
2011-03-0110.34570.2781.1970.160.1631.7980.2165-0.023
2011-06-0122.19220.2821.1950.1580.1631.7980.2008-0.006
2011-09-0134.72010.2811.180.1540.1661.7810.17780.0165
2011-12-0148.41240.2791.180.1490.1671.7750.1630.021
2012-03-0111.61480.2821.2170.1450.171.8140.1327-0.01
2012-06-0124.69140.2871.2490.1450.1691.850.1448-0.0322
2012-09-0138.36370.2961.270.1460.1761.8880.1713-0.0664
2012-12-0153.41230.31.2810.1440.1791.9040.1835-0.0802
2013-03-0112.80840.3111.3240.1410.1861.9620.1927-0.09
2013-06-0127.11160.3241.3440.1450.1932.0060.1906-0.0926
2013-09-0142.18360.3331.3550.1470.2032.0380.1869-0.0874
2013-12-0158.80190.3351.3590.1470.2112.0520.1865-0.0856
2014-03-0113.87380.3441.4060.1430.2172.110.1649-0.0817
2014-06-0129.39390.3521.4380.1440.2242.1580.1663-0.0822
2014-09-0145.74060.3571.4210.1460.2342.1580.1482-0.0638
2014-12-0163.61390.361.4240.1490.2392.1720.1451-0.0633
2015-03-0114.79620.3681.4030.1460.2172.1340.0786-0.0121
2015-06-0131.41780.3771.4930.1480.1962.2140.0966-0.0277
2015-09-0149.62850.3861.5040.1520.2122.2540.1333-0.0483
2015-12-0168.90520.3921.5150.1550.2142.2760.135-0.0519
2016-03-0116.2410.4041.5730.1530.1992.3290.1979-0.1003
2016-06-0134.38180.4211.5680.1570.2112.3570.165-0.0707
2016-09-0153.48280.4371.5670.1610.2112.3760.136-0.0583
2016-12-0174.63950.4471.5730.1610.2052.3860.1356-0.0524
2017-03-0118.18670.461.6070.1570.1922.4160.1616-0.0418
2017-06-0138.38180.4721.5940.1590.1952.420.1462-0.0298
2017-09-0159.66070.4841.5790.160.2012.4240.138-0.0225
2017-12-0183.20350.4871.5650.1620.1982.4120.1269-0.0121
2018-03-0120.20350.4961.5690.1580.1952.4180.1118-0.0009
2018-06-0142.59970.5051.5490.1580.1922.4040.10260.0073
2018-09-0166.04720.5161.5280.160.2042.4080.09970.0073
2018-12-0191.92810.5211.5050.1630.22.3890.09430.0105
2019-03-0121.71680.5321.5470.160.212.4490.0887-0.0138
2019-06-0145.8670.5431.5350.1620.2162.4560.1-0.0233
2019-09-0170.97170.5531.5260.1650.2212.4650.1-0.0254
2019-12-0198.65150.5611.5190.170.2162.4660.1077-0.0346
2020-03-0120.52440.581.6210.1740.2342.6090.0068-0.0617
2020-06-0145.35920.61.6530.1810.2462.680.0791-0.0902
2020-09-0171.79480.6181.6480.1940.2572.7170.115-0.1034
2020-12-01101.35670.6231.6270.2060.2532.7090.1287-0.1012
2021-03-0124.920.6221.6150.1990.2482.6840.2491-0.0349
2021-06-0153.20490.6211.5880.1970.2532.6590.16380.0092
2021-09-0182.33370.6211.5730.1990.262.6530.11980.027
2021-12-01114.92370.6191.5410.2030.2652.6280.10.0339
2022-03-0127.03440.6181.5820.1990.2742.6730.08040.0044
2022-06-0156.27910.621.6030.2020.2942.7190.0816-0.0239
2022-09-0187.07330.6211.6090.2080.2892.7270.0871-0.0295
2022-12-01120.47240.6221.6150.2150.2912.7430.0942-0.0459
2023-03-0128.44230.6361.6780.2150.3022.8310.1143-0.0622
2023-06-0159.27150.6381.6860.2150.3072.8460.1024-0.0492
2023-09-0191.26920.6411.6970.2250.3132.8760.1055-0.0573
2023-12-01126.05820.6351.6840.2360.3232.8780.0979-0.0515
2024-03-0129.62990.641.7410.240.3272.9480.0848-0.0328
2024-06-0161.68360.6351.7430.2460.3322.9560.0809-0.0402
2024-09-0194.97490.6321.7460.2580.3452.9810.0786-0.038
2024-12-01134.90840.6141.6840.2560.3522.9060.0806-0.0104
2025-03-0131.87580.6151.7370.2640.3682.9840.0889
2025-06-0166.05350.6111.740.2760.3783.0050.0886
2025-09-01101.50360.6041.7440.2880.3873.0230.0838

名义短期利率和广义货币量的关系

Shibor 3M短期利率与M2/M1/M0货币供应量的月度数据跟踪。数据始于2008年1月。
显示最近30个月数据。完整数据范围:2008-01 至 2026年3月份
M2(亿元)M2同比M1(亿元)M1同比M0(亿元)M0同比
2023年10月份0.610.02422882276.07-0.005674696.07-0.0055108565.35
2023年11月份0.610.02492912014.220.0103675903.410.0018110225.18
2023年12月份0.610.02532922713.330.0037680542.520.0069113444.64
2024年01月份0.52850.0242976250.20.0183694197.880.0201121398.54
2024年02月份0.57650.02192995572.970.0065665916.09-0.0407121009.93
2024年03月份0.58540.02163047952.160.0175685808.90.0299117210.5
2024年04月份0.5940.023011941.98-0.0118660065.69-0.0375117310.55
2024年05月份0.5870.01963018506.730.0022646842.47-0.02117062.72
2024年06月份0.5540.01923050161.540.0105660610.520.0213117736.77
2024年07月份0.550.01863033060.78-0.0056632296.54-0.0429118840.46
2024年08月份0.53040.01853050461.270.0057630238.09-0.0033119472.57
2024年09月份0.63790.01843094798.240.0145628236.54-0.0032121830
2024年10月份0.640.01883097092.010.0007633357.470.0082122447.04
2024年11月份0.63620.01853119587.270.0073650904.160.0277124180.26
2024年12月份0.63360.01693135322.30.005670959.410.0308128194.16
2025年1月份0.59480.0173185247.180.01591124457.450.0102
2025年2月份0.61673205173.240.00631094370.01-0.0268
2025年3月份0.61723260554.570.01731134863.10.034
2025年4月份0.60033251739.32-0.00271091407.33-0.0383
2025年5月份0.61453257838.110.00191089147.65-0.0021
2025年6月份0.64173302868.170.01381139494.080.0462
2025年7月份0.6713299429.06-0.0011110586.92-0.0254
2025年8月份0.73683319831.440.00621112255.70.0015
2025年9月份0.7501335771.030.01021131455.070.0173
2025年10月份0.75923351312.31-0.00071119962.73-0.0102
2025年11月份0.7463
2025年12月份0.7705
2026年1月份0.81
2026年2月份0.827
2026年3月份0.769

年度名义增长率和名义利率的粗略比较

每年GDP名义增速与LPR 5Y利率的比较。当名义增速持续低于名义利率时,经济面临通缩性债务危机压力。
LPR 5Y实际利率(LPR-CPI)CPIA股总市值(亿)GDP总市值/GDP
1993年0.31240.1404 3541.52 35333.92
1994年0.36410.1476 3690.61 48197.86
1995年0.26150.153 3474.28 60793.73
1996年0.17080.1242 9842.38 71176.59
1997年0.10980.1053 17529.23 78973.03
1998年0.06870.1035 19505.63 84402.28
1999年0.06250.0756 26471.17 89677.05
2000年0.10630.0621 48090.94 99214.55
2001年0.10520.0576 43522.19 109655.17
2002年0.09730.0576 38329.12 120332.69
2003年0.12860.0576 42457.71 135822.76
2004年0.17680.0612 37055.56 159878.34
2005年0.15670.0639 32446.01 184937.37
2006年0.17090.0684 89441.35 216314.43
2007年0.23140.0711 327291.31 265810.31
2008年0.18180.07830.012 121541.05 314045.43
2009年0.09120.05940.019 244103.91 340902.81
2010年0.18310.06140.046 265422.59 401512.8
2011年0.1840.0640.041 214758.09 473104.05
2012年0.10330.0680.025 230357.62 519470
2013年0.10090.06550.025 239077.19 568845
2014年0.08180.06550.015 371100 636463
2015年0.08320.06150.016 531304 676708
2016年0.08320.0490.021 507685 744127
2017年0.11470.0490.018 567085 827122
2018年0.10490.0490.019 434924 919281
2019年0.07310.0480.045 592900 990865
2020年0.02740.04650.002 797200 1015986
2021年0.13390.04650.015 918810 1143670
2022年0.04830.0430.018788005.91204724
2023年0.04640.042-0.003773130.71260582.1
2024年0.050.03850.005854720.521349084
2025年

季度名义增长率和名义利率的细致比较

季度频率的名义GDP增速、实际GDP增速与LPR利率的对比分析,倒推通胀/通缩水平。
时间累计GDP(亿)GDP名义增速实际GDP增速通胀/通缩LPR 5Y沪深300实际利率2(LPR-通胀)实际利率1(LPR-CPI)CPI
2008-06-30148085.50.21440.1120.10240.07832791.82-0.02410.00730.071
2008-09-30230545.60.20440.1060.09840.07742243.66-0.0210.03140.046
2008-12-31319244.60.1820.0970.0850.05941817.72-0.02560.04740.012
2009-03-3173979.20.06640.0640.00240.05942507.790.0570.0714-0.012
2009-06-301578450.06590.073-0.00710.05943166.470.06650.0764-0.017
2009-09-30247691.90.07440.085-0.01060.05943004.80.070.0674-0.008
2009-12-31348517.70.09170.094-0.00230.05943575.680.06170.04040.019
2010-03-3187501.30.18280.1220.06080.05943345.61-0.00140.03540.024
2010-06-30186848.70.18370.1140.06970.05942563.07-0.01030.03040.029
2010-09-30292812.40.18220.1090.07320.05942935.57-0.01380.02340.036
2010-12-31412119.30.18250.1060.07650.0643128.26-0.01250.0180.046
2011-03-31104469.90.19390.1020.09190.0663223.29-0.02590.0120.054
2011-06-30223365.80.19540.1010.09440.0683044.09-0.02640.0040.064
2011-09-303499280.19510.0980.09710.07052581.35-0.02660.00950.061
2011-12-31487940.20.1840.0950.0890.07052345.74-0.01850.02950.041
2012-03-31117357.60.12340.0810.04240.07052454.90.02810.03450.036
2012-06-30248678.30.11330.0790.03430.0682461.610.03370.0460.022
2012-09-30386767.90.10530.0780.02730.06552293.110.03820.04650.019
2012-12-315385800.10380.0790.02480.06552522.950.04070.04050.025
2013-03-31129449.60.1030.0790.0240.06552495.080.04150.04450.021
2013-06-30272968.20.09770.0770.02070.06552200.640.04480.03850.027
2013-09-30425190.90.09930.0780.02130.06552409.040.04420.03450.031
2013-12-31592963.20.1010.0780.0230.06552330.030.04250.04050.025
2014-03-31140759.80.08740.0740.01340.06552146.30.05210.04150.024
2014-06-30297249.50.0890.0740.0150.06552165.120.05050.04250.023
2014-09-30462734.20.08830.0730.01530.06552450.990.05020.04950.016
2014-12-31643563.10.08530.0730.01230.06153533.710.04920.04650.015
2015-03-31151137.90.07370.070.00370.0594051.20.05530.0450.014
2015-06-30319687.60.07550.070.00550.05444730.04850.040.014
2015-09-30496285.30.07250.0690.00350.05153202.950.0480.03550.016
2015-12-31688858.20.07040.0690.00140.04937310.04760.0330.016
2016-03-311624100.07460.0670.00760.0493218.090.04140.0260.023
2016-06-30343818.20.07550.0670.00850.0493153.920.04050.030.019
2016-09-30534828.90.07770.0670.01070.0493253.280.03830.030.019
2016-12-31746395.10.08350.0670.01650.0493310.080.03250.0280.021
2017-03-31181867.70.11980.0690.05080.0493456.05-0.00180.040.009
2017-06-303838180.11630.0690.04730.0493666.80.00170.0340.015
2017-09-30596607.30.11550.0690.04650.0493836.50.00250.0330.016
2017-12-31832035.90.11470.0690.04570.0494030.850.00330.0310.018
2018-03-31202035.70.11090.0680.04290.0493898.50.00610.0280.021
2018-06-30425997.90.10990.0680.04190.0493510.980.00710.030.019
2018-09-30660472.20.1070.0670.040.0493438.860.0090.0240.025
2018-12-31919281.10.10490.0660.03890.0493010.650.01010.030.019
2019-03-31217168.30.07490.0640.01090.0493872.340.03810.0260.023
2019-06-30458670.90.07670.0630.01370.0493825.590.03530.0220.027
2019-09-30709717.20.07460.0620.01260.04853814.530.03590.01850.03
2019-12-31986515.20.07310.0610.01210.0484096.580.03590.0030.045
2020-03-31205244.8-0.0549-0.0680.01310.04753686.160.03440.00450.043
2020-06-30453592.5-0.0111-0.0160.00490.04654613.960.04160.02150.025
2020-09-30717948.20.01160.0070.00460.04654587.40.04190.02950.017
2020-12-3110135670.02740.0230.00440.04655211.290.04210.04450.002
2021-03-31249200.20.21420.1830.03120.04655048.360.01530.04250.004
2021-06-30532049.40.1730.1270.0460.04655224.040.00050.03550.011
2021-09-30823337.50.14680.0980.04880.04654866.38-0.00230.03950.007
2021-12-3111492370.13390.0810.05290.04654940.37-0.00640.03150.015
2022-03-31270344.50.08480.0480.03680.0464222.60.00920.0310.015
2022-06-30562791.10.05780.0250.03280.04454485.010.01170.01950.025
2022-09-30870733.20.05760.030.02760.0433804.890.01540.0150.028
2022-12-3112047240.04830.030.01830.0433871.630.02470.0250.018
2023-03-312844230.05210.0450.00710.0434050.930.03590.0360.007
2023-06-30592715.60.05320.055-0.00180.0423842.450.04380.0420
2023-09-309126920.04820.052-0.00380.0423689.520.04580.0420
2023-12-311260582.10.04640.052-0.00560.0423431.110.04760.045-0.003
2024-03-312962990.04180.053-0.01120.03953537.620.05070.03850.001
2024-06-306168360.04070.05-0.0093
2024-09-309497490.04060.048-0.0074
2024-12-3113490840.07020.050.0202
2025-03-313187580.07580.0540.0218
2025-06-30
数据来源:Wesley投资 | 债务危机检测表.xlsx
所有数据仅供研究参考,不构成投资建议。部分单元格包含公式计算,显示值可能为近似值。